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Opinion: Our possibly short national nightmare
  + stars: | 2024-01-21 | by ( Richard Galant | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +19 min
“My fellow Americans, our long national nightmare is over,” President Gerald Ford said. “Our campaign is the last best hope of stopping the Trump-Biden nightmare,” the former UN ambassador said. If not, it won’t be as protracted a “national nightmare” as the two-year-long Watergate scandal that put Gerald Ford in the Oval Office. Though, depending on your point of view, the real nightmare could begin after the swearing-in. Yet, John Avlon wrote, Trump and some members of the House GOP, want to tank an emerging compromise in the Senate that would couple border security measures with aid to Ukraine.
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The percentage of Black workers in the auto industry today is more than double their share of the workforce overall. But the decline in US auto jobs and the erosion of unions have hit Black workers hardest. Black workers are likelier to belong to unions, in any industry, compared to White and Hispanic workers. Black union workers earn on average 16.4% higher wages than non-union Black workers, and they are likelier to have health care and retirement benefits, studies show. Hard-won gains disappearSoon after Black auto workers broke into better paying jobs, the US auto industry began its long decline, decimating Black communities in particular.
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The union proposed 40% hourly pay increases over the next four years. Meanwhile, Ford CEO Jim Farley earned $21 million in total compensation last year, the Detroit News reported. Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares made $24.8 million, according to the Detroit Free Press. And GM CEO Mary Barra earned nearly $29 million in 2022 pay, Automotive News reported. CEO pay at the Big Three has grown 40% in the last decade, according to EPI — in line with the UAW's demands for 40% pay increases for autoworkers.
Persons: Autoworker, Jim Farley, Carlos Tavares, Mary Barra, Josh Bivens, EPI, Shawn Fain, Ford, Barra Organizations: United Auto Workers, Detroit, Ford, GM, CNBC, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CBS, Detroit News, Detroit Free Press, Automotive News, NPR, autoworkers, UAW
The US could default on its debt as soon as June 5 if the debt ceiling isn't raised by then. That would translate to "7.8 million jobs lost from peak to trough," Yaros said. Other industries would see over half a million jobs lost in this scenario, including construction. "It's something closer to the 2001 recession that we had after the dot-com bubble, and you get about 1.5 million jobs lost from peak to trough," Yaros said. And 1.5 million jobs lost — that's still a huge human toll that was unnecessarily incurred."
While many of the problems that helped trigger the upward spiral have abated, prices are still high and getting higher. The idea that companies are taking advantage of disruptions to push price increases on consumers has many names — greedflation, excuseflation, price gouging, corporate profiteering — but the gist is the same. Supply-chain issues and other disruptions made sense as drivers of higher prices, Chris Becker, a senior economist and the associate director of policy and research at the Groundwork Collaborative, told me. "Working people are suffering thanks to corporate greed, so we need to enact tougher rules to ensure corporations pay a price when they price gouge." Working people are suffering thanks to corporate greed, so we need to enact tougher rules to ensure corporations pay a price when they price gouge.
However, the jobless rate isn’t expected to be that low for long. While that’s a small improvement from the central bank’s previous 4.6% jobless rate estimate, economists say it’s possible the unemployment rate could rise above the Fed’s expectations. It can be difficult to slow an unemployment spiralEconomists say it’s hard to guess the trajectory of the unemployment rate this year, noting it could very well exceed the Fed’s estimate. As such, the Fed’s tightening efforts could easily drive the Black unemployment rate much higher than the overall jobless rate, said William Spriggs, an economics professor at Howard University and chief economist to the AFL-CIO. The Black unemployment rate will easily get to 9% in that scenario.”One other likely consequence of growing unemployment is slowing wage growth, Bivens said.
Overall, the budget would increase federal spending in the twelve months starting in October to $6.8 trillion from the $6.2 trillion expected to be spent in the current fiscal year. Biden's budget proposal faces stiff opposition from Republican lawmakers emboldened by winning control of the House of Representatives in November's midterm elections. Biden, asked for areas of possible compromise with Republicans, told reporters at the White House: "We'll see what their budget is." Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget advocacy group, said the budget did not go nearly far enough to rein in dangerous debt levels. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a non-partisan Washington think tank, said Biden deserved credit for for putting forward $3 trillion in deficit reduction.
But the economy may be fine with higher inflation. The 2% inflation target has been repeated so often by Fed officials and central bankers worldwide that it seems absolutely crucial to a healthy economy. But "the 2% inflation target, it's relatively arbitrary," said Josh Bivens, director of research at the Economic Policy Institute. In 1991, Canada announced its inflation target; the United Kingdom followed a year later. But if the 2% target is arbitrary, it implies that the economy could function normally at a higher level of inflation.
But the economy may be fine with higher inflation. The 2% inflation target has been repeated so often by Fed officials and central bankers worldwide that it seems absolutely crucial to a healthy economy. But "the 2% inflation target, it's relatively arbitrary," said Josh Bivens, director of research at the Economic Policy Institute. In 1991, Canada announced its inflation target; the United Kingdom followed a year later. But if the 2% target is arbitrary, it implies that the economy could function normally at a higher level of inflation.
The 2% inflation target is key to the Federal Reserve's vision for stable prices in the U.S. economy, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. But, "the 2% inflation target, it's relatively arbitrary," Josh Bivens, director of research at the Economic Policy Institute, told CNBC. "We led the way in inflation targeting," Arthur Grimes, professor of wellbeing and public policy at Victoria University, told CNBC. Canada announced its inflation target in 1991, and the United Kingdom followed suit in 1992. Then, Sweden and Finland declared inflation targets in 1993, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
On paper, the average hourly wage Americans have earned has steadily climbed over the past year, from $30.76 to $32.36. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Americans have effectively experienced a 12-month pay cut of $0.31 per hour. Combined with a decrease in hours worked, Americans' inflation adjusted average weekly pay has decreased by only $13.20 from one year ago. The BLS released data Tuesday showing that monthly inflation had picked up 0.1%, while annualized inflation had climbed 8.3%. "Clearly the high inflation is undermining Americans’ purchasing power," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's, told NBC News.
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